{"id":20103,"date":"2022-08-08T07:43:56","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T05:43:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cassandraprogram.info\/vegjatek-az-eghajlatban-katasztrofalis-forgatokonyvek-vizsgalata\/"},"modified":"2022-08-08T07:43:56","modified_gmt":"2022-08-08T05:43:56","slug":"vegjatek-az-eghajlatban-katasztrofalis-forgatokonyvek-vizsgalata","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cassandraprogram.info\/en\/vegjatek-az-eghajlatban-katasztrofalis-forgatokonyvek-vizsgalata\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e9gj\u00e1t\u00e9k az \u00e9ghajlatban: katasztrof\u00e1lis forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek vizsg\u00e1lata"},"content":{"rendered":"

A k\u00f6r\u00fcltekint\u0151 kock\u00e1zatkezel\u00e9s megk\u00f6veteli a rosszt\u00f3l a legrosszabbig terjed\u0151 forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek \u00e1ttekint\u00e9s\u00e9t. Az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1ssal kapcsolatban azonban az ilyen j\u00f6v\u0151k\u00e9pekhez nincs elegend\u0151 pontos ismeret\u00fcnk.<\/mark><\/p>\n

Vezethet az emberi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9gek miatt kialakul\u00f3 \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s az eg\u00e9sz vil\u00e1gra kiterjed\u0151 t\u00e1rsadalmi \u00f6sszeoml\u00e1shoz vagy ak\u00e1r az emberis\u00e9g v\u00e9gs\u0151 kihal\u00e1s\u00e1hoz? Jelenleg ez egy vesz\u00e9lyesen elhanyagolt t\u00e9ma. Ugyanakkor b\u0151ven van okunk felt\u00e9telezni, hogy az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s glob\u00e1lis katasztr\u00f3f\u00e1hoz vezethet.<\/p>\n

E sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9ges k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyek mechanizmusainak elemz\u00e9se seg\u00edthet a cselekv\u00e9sre \u00f6szt\u00f6nz\u00e9s\u00e9ben, az ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3 k\u00e9pess\u00e9g jav\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1ban \u00e9s inform\u00e1ci\u00f3t szolg\u00e1ltathat a d\u00f6nt\u00e9shozatalhoz, ide\u00e9rtve a v\u00e9szhelyzeti v\u00e1laszl\u00e9p\u00e9seket is.<\/p>\n

Jelen \u00edr\u00e1sunkban felv\u00e1zoljuk a sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9ges \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g\u00e9vel kapcsolatos jelenlegi ismereteinket, megvitatjuk, hogy mi\u00e9rt l\u00e9tfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa a rossz \u00e9s a legrosszabb lehet\u0151s\u00e9gek meg\u00e9rt\u00e9se, megfogalmazzuk, hogy mi\u00e9rt indokolhat\u00f3ak a katasztrof\u00e1lis kimenetelekkel kapcsolatos aggodalmak, meghat\u00e1rozzuk az alapvet\u0151 fogalmakat, \u00e9s javaslatot tesz\u00fcnk egy kutat\u00e1si menetrendre.<\/p>\n

A felv\u00e1zolt tematika n\u00e9gy f\u0151 k\u00e9rd\u00e9sre terjed ki:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1) Mi a val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9ge annak, hogy az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s t\u00f6meges kihal\u00e1si esem\u00e9nyeket id\u00e9z el\u0151?
\n2) Melyek azok a mechanizmusok, amelyek az emberek k\u00f6r\u00e9ben t\u00f6meges hal\u00e1loz\u00e1st \u00e9s megbeteged\u00e9st eredm\u00e9nyezhetnek?
\n3) Milyen tekintetben s\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenyek az emberi t\u00e1rsadalmak az \u00e9ghajlat \u00e1ltal kiv\u00e1ltott kock\u00e1zati esem\u00e9nysorozatok k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyeivel, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a konfliktusokkal, a politikai instabilit\u00e1ssal vagy a rendszerszint\u0171 p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi kock\u00e1zatokkal szemben?
\n4) Hogyan lehet ezeket a sokr\u00e9t\u0171 bizony\u00edt\u00e9kokat – m\u00e1s glob\u00e1lis vesz\u00e9lyekkel egy\u00fctt – hasznosan szintetiz\u00e1lni egy \u201eintegr\u00e1lt katasztr\u00f3fa \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9sben\u201d?<\/p>\n

Id\u0151szer\u0171, hogy a tudom\u00e1nyos k\u00f6z\u00f6ss\u00e9g v\u00e9gre megk\u00fczdj\u00f6n a katasztrof\u00e1lis \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s jobb meg\u00e9rt\u00e9s\u00e9nek kih\u00edv\u00e1s\u00e1val.<\/p>\n

A teljes cikk eredeti nyelven itt<\/a> el\u00e9rhet\u0151.<\/p>\n

A bejegyz\u00e9s a PNAS oldalon 2022-ben k\u00f6z\u00f6lt \u00edr\u00e1s alapj\u00e1n k\u00e9sz\u00fclt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A k\u00f6r\u00fcltekint\u0151 kock\u00e1zatkezel\u00e9s megk\u00f6veteli a rosszt\u00f3l a legrosszabbig terjed\u0151 forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek \u00e1ttekint\u00e9s\u00e9t. Az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1ssal kapcsolatban azonban az ilyen j\u00f6v\u0151k\u00e9pekhez nincs elegend\u0151 pontos ismeret\u00fcnk. Vezethet az emberi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9gek miatt kialakul\u00f3 \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s az eg\u00e9sz vil\u00e1gra kiterjed\u0151 t\u00e1rsadalmi \u00f6sszeoml\u00e1shoz vagy ak\u00e1r az emberis\u00e9g v\u00e9gs\u0151 kihal\u00e1s\u00e1hoz? Jelenleg ez egy vesz\u00e9lyesen elhanyagolt t\u00e9ma. Ugyanakkor b\u0151ven van okunk felt\u00e9telezni, hogy az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":294,"featured_media":19555,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1671],"tags":[1843,1844,1845,1846,1847,1848,1849,1850,1851,1852,1853,1854,1855,1856,1857,1858,1859,1860,1861,1862,1863,1864,1865,1866,1867,1788,1868,1869,1870,1871,1872,1873,1874,1793,1875,1876,1795,1754,1877,1878,1879,1880,1881,1882,1883,1884,1885,1886,1887,1888,1889,1890,1797,1891,1892,1798,1893,1894,1895,1896,1897,1799,1898,1899,1900,1901,1902,1903,1756,1904,1905,1906,1907,1908,1909,1910,1911,1912,1913,1914,1915,1916,1802,1757,1917,1918,1803,1919,1920,1804,1921,1922,1923,1924,1925,1926,1805,1927,1928,1929,1930,1931,1932,1933,1934,1935,1758,1936,1937,1938,1939,1940,1759,1941,1806,1942,1943,1944,1945,1946,1947,1948,1949,1811,1812,1761,1763,1764,1950,1951,1952,1953,1954,1955,1765,1956,1813,1957,1958,1959,1766,1960,1816,1961,1962,1963,1964,1965,1966,1770,1967,1968,1969,1970,1971,1972,1973,1974,1975,1976,1977,1978,1817,1771,1979,1980,1981,1982,1772,1819,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1821,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1823,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,1826,1828,2008,1829,2009,2010,2011,2012,1831,1832,1833,1834,2013,2014,2015,2016,1835,2017,1836,1837,2018,2019,2020,1838,2021,2022,2023,1778,2024,2025,2026,2027,1841,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,1842,2035,2036],"bejegyzestipus":[209],"felkeszuleskategoria":[],"forraskategoria":[2326,2325,2327,2335,2336,2328,2329,2337,2330,2321,2334,2338,2339],"mediatipus":[],"nyelv":[34,35],"class_list":["post-20103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-aktivitas","tag-allattenyesztes","tag-allatvilag","tag-alternativa","tag-antropocen","tag-antropogen","tag-anyag","tag-anyagfelhasznalas","tag-ar","tag-aszaly","tag-atalakitas","tag-atomenergia","tag-automatizacio","tag-banyaszat","tag-biodiverzitas","tag-bolygomernokseg","tag-buncselekmeny","tag-bunozes","tag-buza","tag-civilizacio","tag-co2","tag-co2elnyeles","tag-co2kibocsatas","tag-csapadek","tag-csapadekkepzodes","tag-cselekves","tag-csokkentes","tag-demokracia","tag-digitalistechnologia","tag-digitalizacio","tag-dinamika","tag-dominohatas","tag-egyuttmukodes","tag-ehezes","tag-elelem","tag-elelmiszer","tag-eletmod","tag-elkerulhetetlen","tag-elkotelezettseg","tag-ellatasilanc","tag-eloleny","tag-eloszlas","tag-eltartokepesseg","tag-emelkedes","tag-energia","tag-energiaegyenleg","tag-energiaforras","tag-energiahalozat","tag-energiahasznalat","tag-erdogazdalkodas","tag-erdosites","tag-erdotuz","tag-eroszak","tag-erteklanc","tag-erzekenyseg","tag-esely","tag-eszakisark","tag-exponencialis","tag-faj","tag-fajgazdagsag","tag-feldolgozoipar","tag-felelosseg","tag-felismeres","tag-felmelegedes","tag-finanszirozas","tag-fogyasztas","tag-fogyaszto","tag-foldgaz","tag-folyamat","tag-fordulopontok","tag-forgatokonyv","tag-fosszilis","tag-gat","tag-gaz","tag-gazdalkodas","tag-gazdasag","tag-gazdasagpolitika","tag-gdp","tag-gleccser","tag-globalis","tag-gmomentes","tag-gomba","tag-gyermek","tag-gyorsulas","tag-haboru","tag-hadsereg","tag-halal","tag-halozat","tag-hatarpontok","tag-hatas","tag-hiany","tag-hirtelen","tag-homerseklet","tag-hozam","tag-hulladek","tag-hulladekgazdalkodas","tag-igeny","tag-inflacio","tag-infrastruktura","tag-ingatlan","tag-innovacio","tag-internet","tag-intezkedes","tag-intezmenyek","tag-invaziv","tag-ipar","tag-ipcc","tag-irreverzibilis","tag-jarvany","tag-jog","tag-karbonlabnyom","tag-karok","tag-katasztrofak","tag-kendioxid","tag-kepesseg","tag-kereskedelem","tag-kezeles","tag-kihalas","tag-kihivas","tag-kitelepites","tag-klimacelok","tag-klimakarok","tag-klimamenekult","tag-klimatagadas","tag-klimatudatossag","tag-klimavalsag","tag-kockazat","tag-kockazatelemzes","tag-kockazatviseles","tag-kommunikacio","tag-kompenzacio","tag-konfliktus","tag-koolaj","tag-kooperacio","tag-kornyezetikatasztrofa","tag-kornyezetvedelem","tag-kozosseg","tag-kozvelemenykutatas","tag-kozvetett","tag-kultura","tag-lassulas","tag-megallapodas","tag-megelhetes","tag-megujulo","tag-melyalkalmazkodas","tag-mennyiseg","tag-mezogazdasag","tag-migracio","tag-migran","tag-modell","tag-munka","tag-munkahely","tag-munkakepesseg","tag-munkavallalas","tag-munkavegzes","tag-nacionalizmus","tag-napelem","tag-napenergia","tag-nemzetkozi","tag-nepesseg","tag-nepessegrobbanas","tag-nettozero","tag-neveles","tag-novekedes","tag-nyersanyaghiany","tag-okok","tag-oktatas","tag-osszefuggesek","tag-osszeomlas","tag-paradigmavaltas","tag-penzugy","tag-piac","tag-polgarhaboru","tag-polikrizis","tag-politika","tag-produktivitas","tag-prognozis","tag-pusztulas","tag-regionalis","tag-rizs","tag-robotizacio","tag-rovarok","tag-ruhaipar","tag-sarkkor","tag-segely","tag-so2","tag-solar","tag-stabilitas","tag-szabalyozas","tag-szantas","tag-szarazsag","tag-szel","tag-szelenergia","tag-szen","tag-szendioxid","tag-szennyezes","tag-szennyviz","tag-szete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